On the soybean market is growing, competition
Brazil continues to increase exports of soybeans to China, which refused U.S. soybeans and purchased 90% of exports of Brazilian soybeans.
In November, Brazil exported of 5.07 million tonnes of soybeans, which is twice more than last year, and in just 11 months - 79,63 million tons of soybeans. Another 3 million tons, according to experts, will be exported in December, so total exports in 2018 will reach 83 million tons, which is 14.7 MMT over 2017
experts predict Céleres, in the 2018/19 season of the South American country will gather a good harvest of soybeans, in particular, for Brazil it is estimated at 123-130 million tonnes in January 2019 begin to apply pressure on soybean prices. Award for Brazilian soybeans reached $100/MT compared to us, but now declined significantly due to the possible recovery of China's imports of soybeans from the United States.
In March, Brazilian soy interested buyers from Asia, after its price was only $10/t above the price of U.S. soybeans, including the premium for the quality almost equal.
United States attracted a record soybean crop at 125 million tons and are actively looking for new markets after the loss of Chinese buyers. According to estimates by USDA this year, the country exports 51,71 million tons of soybeans.
currently, the rate of exports is lower than last year and make up only 45% of the forecast against 71% as at that date, averaged over 5 years. Shipment of soybeans to China declined by 97%, while increased shipments to the EU by 100%, and to Mexico and Argentina, which imports soybeans for processing capacity utilization.
Competition for buyers of soybean increases as reducing the consumption of oil in China, due to the new standards of feed and a decrease in the number of pigs due to the outbreak of ASF. If China since January, will resume the purchase of soybeans from the United States, the price of Brazilian soybeans will be reduced.
Ukraine harvested 4.4 million tons of soybeans, but export demand remains very low, which confirms the purchase price in the port at the level of 320-330 $/t