On the EU market enhanced competition between rape and Canalou from Canada, and Australia

2021-02-12 12:04:03
Machine translation
On the EU market enhanced competition between rape and Canalou from Canada, and Australia

despite the reduction In the production of rapeseed in the EU and Ukraine, Australia and Canada continue to increase exports of canola in the European Union that puts forward prices of domestic rapeseed new crop.

 

According to the forecast of the European Commission, in 2020/21 MG production of rapeseed in the EU (excluding UK) will decrease compared to the previous season 17% from 6.2 to 5.2 million tons.

 

Experts Stratégie Grains increased compared to the previous estimate forecast of import of rapeseed in the EU (along with Britain) in 2020/21 MG from 5.9 to a record 6.7 million tons due to the increase in imports of canola from Australia and the highest margins processing within the EU.

 

6 months 2020/21 MG EU countries decreased compared to the same period of the previous season, the imports of rape by 6% from 3.77 to 3.53 million tonnes, of which 60% or 2.13 million tonnes was the rape of Ukraine and 34%, or 1.2 million tonnes from Canada.

 

To meet the high demand from European refiners, Australia in the coming months can significantly increase the exports of canola in the EU, and in January, according to preliminary estimates of experts of the Oil World, shipped in the direction of 0.4-0.5 million tons of canola.

 

In December 2020. Australia increased compared with December 2019, exports of canola 13% to 264 thousand tons, shipped almost all of the volume in the EU. In General, during 2020, the country increased its exports of canola from 1.61 to 1.67 million tonnes, including in China, 91% to 432 thousand tons, and the EU – to 1.1 million tons.

 

Recall that in the latest ABARES report, analysts have estimated the exports of canola from Australia to 2020/21 MG of 2.7 million tons, and the production of 3.7 million tonnes, which is 71% and 59%, respectively, higher than the figures 2019/20 MG.

 

Canada over the 26 weeks of the current season increased compared to the same period in 2019/20 MG canola exports by 35%, to 6,199 million tons.

 

May futures on rapeseed MATIF Paris rose yesterday at 3 €/t to 446,75 €/t or 541,6 $/t and the August – 4 €/t to 411,75 €/t or 499,17 $/t

 

In Ukraine, the forward rates for rape are 490-500 $/t delivery port, but manufacturers keep sales from the review of current high prices for soybeans and sunflower, which exceed 580 and 680 $/t (excluding VAT), respectively.

 

the March futures on canadian canola traded 704 CAD/t or 553 $/t, and the November – for 565 CAD/t or 444 $/t on the background of active exports and the decline in stocks of canola.

 

an increase in the supply of Australian canola soon will lower prices for rapeseed in Europe, especially amid growing suggestions soy from South America. This will increase the pressure on forward prices for Ukrainian rape, which the EU is actively replaces the canadian and Australian Canalou, despite the presence of GMOs.

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