The U.S. soybean crush prices of vegetable oils

2020-07-28 12:12:36
Machine translation
The U.S. soybean crush prices of vegetable oils

After active purchases of soybeans from Brazil in the first half, while China continues to buy U.S. soybeans new crop that supports the market. But improving the prospects of the soybean crop in the United States and Brazil against growth of its stocks in China in the near future can derail oilseed prices.

 

According to the General administration of customs of China, in June imports of soybeans reached a historic high of 11.16 million tons (of which Brazil – a record of 10.51 million tons), which is 18,6% higher than of 8.86 million tons imported in may, and by 91% than 5.5 million tons purchased in June 2019 the import of soybeans from the United States in comparison with June of last year decreased by 56.5% to 267,5 thousand tons.

 

As of 21 July, the stocks of soybeans in China reached the highest since November, 2018 the level of 7.39 million tons, which is twice the record low of March, when for the delay of harvesting Brazil has reduced the supply of soybeans. Stocks of soybean meal is 900 thousand tons, 30 thousand tons lower than the level of the previous month, but 20 thousand tons exceeds the last year indicator.

 

After the outbreak of ASF in 2018 the number of pigs is gradually recovering, increasing the demand for feed and soybean meal. But the increasing imports of cheap soybeans from Brazil is pressuring prices, and market saturation drops the price of pork.

 

According to the Ministry of agriculture of China, in the 1st half of 2020, the number of sows increased to 36.29 million head, accounting for 81% of the level of 2017, so in the near future the number will grow.

 

China will continue to buy U.S. soybeans, which will support prices at the level of 330 $/t. But the deterioration of relations between the two countries, with increased harvest in the U.S. to 114-115 million tons in the near future can decrease rates.

 

For the week, the United States reduced the export of soybeans old crop to 472,7 thousand tons, which corresponds to the expert expectations. China continues to buy new crop soybeans from the United States, albeit in small volumes.

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