Futures and prices in the cash wheat market decline after crop growth forecast in Russia

2019-04-16 12:40:13
Machine translation
Futures and prices in the cash wheat market decline after crop growth forecast in Russia

Good condition of winter crops sowing as well as the best rates of sowing of spring wheat in comparison with last season all the more strengthen the hope of getting a good harvest of wheat in the world this year. This continues to put pressure on the prices of the old crop and lower futures prices for new crop.

 

the Russian Agency SovEcon has sharply increased its forecast of wheat production in Russia this season to 83.4 million tons, 3.4 million tons more than the previous estimate in March.

 

the state of the French wheat crop, according to FranceAgrimer estimated at 83% good to excellent, which is 5% higher than last year on this date.

 

Forecasts of output growth of wheat in the new season outweighed all the positive news about the growth of exports of old crop wheat with the EU and the may wheat prices in Paris dropped by €0.25 to 189,00 €/t or 213,50 $/t EU Countries are increasing the pace of wheat exports and has exported 16.08 million tons of soft wheat, which is only 1% less than in the same period of the season 2017/18 (4% the previous week) and the French accounted for more than 47% of exports.

 

 

the market of us winter wheat continued decline in prices amid the slowdown in exports and production forecasts of the new crop, and spring wheat strengthened on the background of delayed sowing due to heavy rainfall and snow. Wheat exports from the U.S. last week reached 511.4 thousand tons, slightly below the previous week. Spring Wheat waas planted on 4% of areas less than in  the same period last year.

 

May the U.S. winter wheat have decreased:

  • soft wheat SRW in Chicago by $1,84 to 168,83 $/ton
  • hard wheat HRW in Kansas city of $2.57 to 156.98 $/ton
  • Hard Wheat HRS in Minneapolis by $ 0.18 to 195,38 $/ton

 

 

In Ukraine, the export of wheat last week decreased by 10% and amounted to 156 thousand tons, and from the beginning of the season was exported 13.7 million tons of wheat (-8% last year), including food – almost 9 million tons (+7%), fodder 4.8 million tons (-33%).

 

the Purchase price of wheat continued to decline with the decline of the procurement activities of companies in the market of wheat. Traders lowered the price of wheat since the beginning of the week 100-200 UAH/t with delivery to the port level:

  • wheat protein 12,5% 203-204$/t, or 6400-6500grn/t
  • wheat protein 11.5% of 200-203$/t or 6300-6350грн/t

feed wheat 190-192$/t or 5800-6100грн/t

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