Fundamental factors stopped speculative price increases for wheat

Data export sales of wheat from the United States yesterday stopped a speculative rise in wheat prices, and deployed them down.

Experts IGC increased the forecast of world wheat production by 6 million tonnes to 773 million tonnes, due to the increasing production in Russia, Australia and Kazakhstan, whereas the estimated consumption of wheat increased by 3 million tonnes to 756 million tons

IN 2021/22 MG global wheat production may reach a record 790 million tonnes due to good harvests in Europe, India and North Africa.

estimates of the Ministry of agriculture, this year India will bring together a record 109,24 million tons of wheat, which will further increase and so historically large government stocks.

Export sales of wheat from the U.S. last week fell by 58% to its lowest this year level to 167.8 thousand tons, and from the beginning of the season was 23,57 million tonnes, or 88% of the forecast. Importers are not in a hurry to buy American wheat that has grown considerably in price. Actual wheat exports for the week amounted to 392 thousand tons, but only in the season of 17.3 million tons.

the May wheat futures in the U.S. fell:

• by 3.58 $/t to 248,29 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago,
• by 3.86 $/t to 239,75 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city,
• by 2.57 $/t to 233.01 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Caused by a decrease in demand, the fall in wheat prices in Chicago has increased pressure on the Paris stock exchange. However, in the context of high prices export demand for European wheat also began to decrease.

• the May futures for milling wheat on MATIF fell by 1.25 €/t to 231,5 €/t or 281,71 $/t

Prices for black sea wheat for delivery in March and April remain at 285-290 $/t FOB, while a new crop of wheat for delivery in July-August rose to 235-240 $/t FOB.

quotations of wheat of the new harvest supports dry weather in the regions of sowing winter wheat in the United States. If 2-3 weeks there will be sufficient precipitation, pressure on wheat prices of the old and the new crop will significantly increase.