USDA experts lowered estimates of corn production and stocks for the current season, but increased them for the next one

2021-05-13 12:05:52
Machine translation
USDA experts lowered estimates of corn production and stocks for the current season, but increased them for the next one

< span style="font-size:14px;" > the May USDA report interested traders not only with corn balance adjustments for my 2020/21, but also with the first harvest forecasts for my 2021/22.

 

the forecast of World corn production in 2020/21 MG was lowered by 8.59 million tons to 1128.46 million tons due to a decrease in the forecast for Brazil by 7 million tons to 102 million tons. the forecast of consumption was also lowered by 6.78 million tons to 1149.4 million tons, as a result of which the estimate of World Final corn stocks in 2020/21 MG was reduced by 0.2 million tons up to 283.53 million tons, although analysts estimated them at 279.4 million tons.

 

the forecast for corn exports from the United States in my 2020/21 was increased by 2.54 million tons to 70.49 million tons, as a result of which the final reserves will decrease by 2.4 million tons to 31.93 million tons. < / span> < / p>

 

according to the USDA forecast, in 2021/22 MG, global corn production will grow by 61.4 million tons compared to the current season to a record 1189.85 million tons due to an increase in the harvest in the United States by 20.3 million tons to 380.76 million tons, Brazil – by 16 million tons to 118 million tons, China – by 7.33 million tons to 268 million tons, Ukraine – by 7.2 million tons to 37.5 million tons, Argentina – by 4 million tons to 51 million tons

 

< span style="font-size:14px;" > global corn consumption in 2021/22 MG will grow by 31.67 million tons compared to the current season to 1181.08 million tons, in particular in the United States by 5 million tons and in China by 5 million tons due to increased consumption for ethanol and feed production.

 

global corn exports are expected to grow by 10.2 million tons to 197.47 million tons compared to my 2020/21, including from Brazil – by 4 million tons to 43 million tons, Argentina – by 2 million tons to 36 million tons, Ukraine – by 7.5 million tons to 30.5 million tons. increased competition with Ukraine.

 

< span style="font-size:14px;" > the forecast of World corn imports increased by 3% to 189.5 million tons compared to my 2020/21, in particular for the EU – by 4 million tons to 16 million tons, China – by 2 million tons to 26 million tons, Turkey – by 1.2 million tons to 3.6 million tons, Iran – by 1 million tons to 8 million tons, as well as slightly for Japan and Mexico. 

 

< span style="font-size:14px;">the estimate of World Final corn stocks in 2021/22 MG was increased to 293.3 million tons compared to 283.53 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 302.99 million tons in 2019/20 MG, primarily due to the growth of stocks in the United States.

 

< span style="font-size:14px;">forecasts for the old and new crops turned out to be more optimistic than the market expected, so after the publication of the report, prices for corn of the new crop accelerated their decline. However, in China, despite the increase in corn production, prices for corn and other energy feeds will remain at a high level.

 

on the Chicago Stock Exchange, July corn futures fell 1% to 2 281.4/ton, December – immediately by 3.1% to 2 233.5/ton, although after the release of the April report they were trading at 1 195/ton. < / span> < / p>

 

< span style="font-size:14px;" > today, stock quotes will continue to fall under pressure to increase forecasts for the new corn and wheat crop to record levels.

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