Experts, the USDA increased the forecast of production and consumption of wheat

2019-02-11 12:06:19
Machine translation
Experts, the USDA increased the forecast of production and consumption of wheat

Experts FAS USDA increased compared to the December report, the forecast world wheat production in 2018/19 MG by 1.3 million tonnes to 734,7 million tons, primarily due to Russia, which increased the estimate of harvest by 1.6 million tons to 71.6 million tons.


the Forecast of world consumption of wheat has increased by 2 million tonnes mainly due to increased consumption in China by 2 million tons.


the Estimate of world wheat trade is raised 1.1 million tons to of 179.5 million tons due to increased export forecasts for Russia by 0.5 million tons and Pakistan 0.7 million tonnes for Australia because of the drought and the slow pace of shipments export forecast reduced 0.5 million tons to 10 million tons, which will be the second lowest in history since 2007/08, when it was exported 7.5 million tons For USA, Canada, Argentina and EU forecasts have not changed.


According to experts, in the near future, the United States can increase exports of wheat due to higher prices for black sea grain, especially Russia, significantly increases the competitiveness of U.S. wheat. However, to achieve the USDA's projected exports for the EU and the USA, countries need to significantly increase the pace of shipments in the coming months.


the Estimate for world carryover stocks compared to the December report reduced 0.5 million tons to 267,5 million tons, which is 4.5% or 12.5 million tons will give the level of 2017/18 MG. For Russia due to increased production forecast of reserves increased by 1.1 million tonnes to 6.5 million tonnes, which is still 1.8 times lower than in the previous record season.


In Friday's report on crop acreage forecast of sowing areas of winter wheat in the US was reduced to 31,29 million acres that will be below the level of expert expectations, 1.31 million acres will yield to the same level as last year and will be the lowest figure since 1909.


amid these bullish reports, the March wheat futures rose:

1.47 $/t to 208,8 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

  • 1.47 $/t to 190,05 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago

decreased on 0,74 $/t to 181,60 $/MT of hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas city.