Or again strengthened the hryvnia to UAH 25/$?

2020-05-08 12:01:20
Machine translation
Or again strengthened the hryvnia to UAH 25/$?

Hryvnia on the interbank market continues to strengthen gradually and yesterday rose to 26.80-26,82 UAH/$. Now market participants are interested in, repeated last year's situation, when the hryvnia has strengthened by 15%.

 

At yesterday's auction the supply of foreign currency significantly exceeded the demand, so to curb sharp fluctuations of the national Bank had three times to negotiate and buy the excess currency, with the result that it has acquired $ 100 million at the rate of 26.84-26.79 UAH/$. The main sellers of the currency was a "Naftogaz" and its subsidiaries, which carry out enumeration in the budget. In April, half of the budget revenues made by the national Bank listed a profit, then in may, the budget will support Naftogaz.

 

the negotiations between the IMF and Ukraine it was decided to abandon a previously agreed 3-year eff EFF and go for an 18-month stand-by program, which is to stabilize the economy after the pandemic COVID-19 crisis, Ukraine will be able to get 5.5 billion $.

 

New tranche of the IMF and the proceeds from the sale of government bonds increases the supply of currency on the interbank market, which will lead to the strengthening of the hryvnia. But experts hope that the mistakes of last year, when similar steps have fallen off the exports and industrial production by 7-10%, will not happen, although the government does not yet have a clear vision of the acceptable rate of the hryvnia this year.

 

the Ministry of economic development in the new consensus-the forecast for 2020/21 year takes into account the average rate in 2020 at the level of the 28.85 UAH/$, while the government changed course, laid in the state Budget for 2020, from 27 to 29,5 UAH/$.

 

in Last year negative trade balance of Ukraine has reached $ 5 billion. This year, the balance can be improved by the following factors:

the

decrease in purchasing power by 20% will reduce the import of goods for another 4-5 billion $,

as a result of temporary restrictions on the movement around the world, the Ukrainian tourists will be in the journey, not $ 10 billion but not more than $5 billion,

foreign exchange earnings from migrant workers will be reduced from 12-14 to 9-10 billion $,

foreign exchange earnings from exports are lower due to production cutbacks in the steel industry and the fall in export demand and the predicted decrease in yield of grain by 15-20%.

  • a decline in prices for oil, gas and petroleum products will reduce by half the cost of imports, which is estimated at $ 12 billion (-5 billion $ imports),

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